Note: I am posting this in the off chance you haven’t read something like it before.
Gordon Moore1 observed in 1965 that the surface area of a transistor was being reduced by 50% each year. The press called this observation Moore’s Law. It is especially significant to us because the transistor is the fundamental building block of computation technology, the integrated circuit.
He predicted in 1975 that, for the foreseeable future, computer chip density would double every two years and with it computer power. At the same time, Moore observed that the cost to manufacture the computer chips was remaining relatively constant. If you bought your first new microcomputer in 1975, according to Moore’s Law you have observed the following:
1977 – New computers are 2 times faster than mine in 1975
1979 – New computers are 4 times faster than mine in 1975
1981 – New computers are 8 times faster than mine in 1975
1983 – New computers are 16 times faster than mine in 1975
1985 – New computers are 32 times faster than mine in 1975
1987 – New computers are 64 times faster than mine in 1975
1989 – New computers are 128 times faster than mine in 1975
1991 – New computers are 256 times faster than mine in 1975
1993 – New computers are 512 times faster than mine in 1975
1995 – New computers are 1024 times faster than mine in 1975
1997 – New computers are 2048 times faster than mine in 1975
1999 – New computers are 4096 times faster than mine in 1975
2001 – New computers are 8192 times faster than mine in 1975
2003 – New computers are 16,000 times faster than mine in 1975
2005 – New computers are 32,000 times faster than mine in 1975
2007 – New computers are 64,000 times faster than mine in 1975
2009 – New computers are 128,000 times faster than mine in 1975
2011 – New computers are 256,000 times faster than mine in 1975
2013 – New computers are 512,000 times faster than mine in 1975
Do you have enough computational power to solve your business problems yet?
Practically speaking, Moore’s Law has been in operation throughout the entire careers of most people in the software development industry. Our computer hardware is threatened with obsolescence every few years.
You can also think of Moore’s Law another way. In 1975 you would have paid $67,000 for computational ability you can buy today for a few cents. In the world of computers the golden triangle of faster, smaller, and cheaper is actually true.
Moore’s Law impacts us in ways we often don’t first realize. For example, answer the following question: How many computers do you own? Before you jump to a quick answer think for a moment. How many computers are in your car? In your home? In your kitchen alone (the microwave, stove, refrigerator, toaster oven, etc. all likely have computers inside)? How many computers are you carrying on you right now?
Moore’s law affects a lot more than just the “personal computer.” It has created a demand for customized computers and software for just about every electronic device imaginable; more devices, more computers, more software, more complexity in the technology that runs our society.
Are you developing software to run on your customers’ current computers? How many changes of operating systems and hardware should your software be designed to survive? What will it look like in the new iPad, on a larger cell phone, in Google Glass?
To survive in this environment you need to make and continually revisit strategic business decisions including which new technology to adopt, how much and when. Yesterday’s answers may not be at all appropriate today for the simple reason that you can no longer even acquire yesterday’s technology. This is a game you cannot get out of, some of us have tried.